似乎在每个总统选举年我们都被告知就业和经济将成为关键问题。人们普遍认为,现任总统几乎不用担心经济是否良好以及是否有大量就业机会。然而,如果情况恰恰相反,总统应该为橡胶鸡赛道做好准备。测试总统的传统智慧我决定研究这种传统智慧,看它是否成立,并看看它能告诉我们未来的总统选举。自1948年以来,已有九次总统选举使一位现任总统对抗挑战者。在这九个中,我选择了六次选举。我决定无视其中两个选举,其中挑战者被认为过于极端而不能当选:1964年的巴里戈德华特和1972年的乔治S.麦戈文。在剩余的总统选举中,现任者赢得了四次选举,而挑战者赢得了三次选举。为了了解就业和经济对选举的影响,我们将考虑两个重要的经济指标:实际GNP(经济)的增长率和失业率(就业)。我们将比较这些变量的两年与四年及之前的四年表现,以便比较“就业与经济”在现任总统期间的表现以及相对于前任政府的表现。首先,我们将看看现任赢得的三个案例中“就业与经济”的表现。一定要继续参加“总统选举与经济”。在我们六次选举的现任总统选举中,我们有3名现任总统选举获胜。我们将看看这三个,从每个候选人收集的选举投票的百分比开始。

美国宾夕法尼亚大学经济学Essay代写:总统选举与经济

It seems that during every presidential election year we are told that jobs and the economy will be pivotal issues. It’s commonly assumed that an incumbent president has little to worry about if the economy is good and there are lots of jobs. If the opposite holds true, however, the president should prepare for life on the rubber chicken circuit. Testing Conventional Wisdom of Presidential
I decided to examine this conventional wisdom to see if it holds true and to see what it can tell us about the future presidential elections. Since 1948, there have been nine presidential elections that have pitted an incumbent president against a challenger. Out of those nine, I chose to examine six elections. I decided to disregard two of those elections where the challenger was considered too extreme to be elected: Barry Goldwater in 1964 and George S. McGovern in 1972. Out of the remaining presidential elections, incumbents won four elections while challengers won three. To see what impact jobs and the economy had on the election, we’ll consider two important economic indicators: the growth rate of real GNP (the economy) and the unemployment rate (jobs). We’ll compare the two-year vs. the four-year and previous four-year performance of those variables in order to compare how “Jobs & The Economy” performed during the incumbent’s presidency and how it performed relative to the previous administration. First, we’ll look at the performance of “Jobs & The Economy” in the three of the cases in which the incumbent won. Be sure to continue to Page 2 of “Presidential Elections and the Economy.” Out of our six chosen incumbent presidential elections, we had three where the incumbent won. We’ll look at those three, starting with the percentage of the electoral vote each candidate collected.

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